A shock poll gives Kamala Harris a three-point lead in the mid-western state of Iowa – a state that Trump won comfortably in 2016 and 2020.
While most states have an historical and predictable political allegiance, attention will be focused on seven ‘swing states’ that will effectively decide the election.
But the latest news from Iowa is a reminder that the outcome in non-swing states could also be far from certain.
The swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona collectively have 93 precious Electoral College votes tied up with them – one third of the 270 votes required to get over the line and win.
But Iowa has a not-insignificant six Electoral College votes up for grabs.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll of 808 voters gives Harris a three-point lead in Iowa and concludes: “The poll shows that women – particularly those who are older or who are politically independent – are driving the late shift toward Harris.”
However, another Iowa poll in September gave Trump a four-point lead.
While the polls appear to be broadly deadlocked, some political analysts are urging caution regarding the neck-and-neck narrative. The tools being used by pollsters may be flattening out results while the reality could be unexpectedly different and more marked.
Featured image courtesy of Gage Skidmore