America is home to 345 million people, including 161 million registered voters, but the 2024 presidential election is so close it could be decided by just thousands of votes.
Here are five demographic groups that will be key to the final outcome:
Latino Voters
Latino voters are the largest growing group in the US. In the swing state of North Carolina, Latinos are approaching 8% of the eligible voter population.
The Latino electorate has historically sided with the Democrats. In the previous four elections, Latinos have voted for the Democratic candidate by at least a two-to-one margin.
Kamala Harris looks set to win the Latino vote in 2024, pouncing on clumsy remarks from Donald Trump’s entourage. At a Trump rally in Madison Square Garden, New York, in the final weeks of the campaign, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage”. There have been signs it has hurt Trump’s support in crucial swing states like Pennsylvania.
The Harris campaign was quick to highlight Hinchcliffe’s divisive comments, although efforts to capitalise on them were dented by Joe Biden’s fumbled reference to them that came across as if he was calling all Trump’s supporters garbage.
Black Voters
In 2020, 87% of black voters cast their ballot for Biden, showing huge support for the Democrats among this demographic group.
However, despite potentially being the first black female president, pre-election NPR polling has shown Harris is on course to win only 78% of the black vote.
While the fall from 2020 doesn’t appear to be catastrophic, it is certainly something to keep an eye on as the black vote will be key for the Democrats in the swing states.
This is especially true in states such as Georgia and North Carolina where the black eligible voter population is 33% and 22% respectively.
Young Voters
If the Democrats win the White House, the younger generation will have had something to do with it.
In 2008, 2012 and 2020, Democrats won more than 60% of the vote in the 18-29 category and subsequently won the election.
Worryingly for Harris, pre-election polling suggests she is behind on the youth vote, which will be especially important in the key swing states.
If Harris is going to win North Carolina, she will need the young voters to be out en masse.
Considering the younger voters consistently have the lowest turnout, it will be fascinating to see how much of an effect they will have on the election.
Rural and Suburban Voters
It appears that suburban voters have increased their support for Harris.
In rural areas, Trump seems to have increased the Republicans’ advantage.
Biden won the suburban vote in 2020 and went on to win the election, which was also the case for Obama in 2008.
Harris has been doing even better than Biden in the suburban areas and for Harris to win the presidency, this trend must hold.
In 2020, Biden did manage to cut into Trump’s rural vote which was a factor in his victory.
Harris is hoping to replicate this feat and it is vital that she chips away at Trump’s rural voter stronghold.
If Trump emphatically wins in the rural areas, it would significantly boost his prospects of winning the presidency.
White Voters
White voters are the single largest group impacting US elections.
Republicans have dominated the white vote in the last 20 years. However, recent polling suggests Harris could win up to 45% of the white vote.
If true, this would be the Democrats’ highest share since 1976.
Picture credit: Gage Skidmore